Regional conflicts and geopolitical strains are highlighting significant fragilities, says Paris-based agency
Nuclear is one of seven clean energy technologies that are key to affordable and secure transitions, but overcoming barriers to deployment, including network infrastructure, should be a priority worldwide.
Together the seven technologies – nuclear, solar PV, wind, electric vehicles, heat pumps, hydrogen and carbon capture – could account for three-quarters of tCO2 emissions reductions to 2050, complemented by other renewables such as bioenergy and geothermal, and energy efficiency.
According to the International Energy Agency’s latest World Energy Outlook, published on 16 October, the share of nuclear power is likely to remain close to 10% under three main long-term scenarios.
The IEA, a Paris-based intergovernmental energy watchdog, said the report comes against a backdrop of escalating risks in the Middle East, Russia’s war in Ukraine and heightened geopolitical tensions globally. It explores a range of energy security issues that decision makers face as they proceed with clean energy transitions.
“Regional conflicts and geopolitical strains are highlighting significant fragilities in today’s global energy system, making clear the need for stronger policies and greater investments to accelerate and expand the transition to cleaner and more secure technologies,” the report says.
Some of the immediate effects of the global energy crisis had started to recede in 2023, the report says, but the risk of further disruptions is now “very high”.
Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, said the report confirms its prediction that the world’s fossil fuel consumption will peak before 2030 and fall into permanent decline as climate policies take effect. But continuing investment in fossil fuel projects will spell falling market prices for oil and gas, the IEA added.
Surge In Clean Energy Demand To Continue
The IEA has predicted that the surge in demand for clean electricity sources will accelerate further in the years ahead, adding the equivalent of Japan’s power demand to the world’s total electricity use each year in a scenario based on today’s policy settings.
The report’s projections based on today’s policy settings indicate that the world is set to enter a new energy market context in the coming years, marked by continued geopolitical hazards but also by relatively abundant supply of multiple fuels and technologies.
In last year’s World Energy Outlook the IEA said a changing policy landscape was creating opportunities for a nuclear comeback with global reactor capacity potentially reaching well over 900 GW by 2050, more than double the 417 GW in 2022.
In July the IEA said global nuclear generation is on track to reach a new high in 2025, surpassing its previous record in 2021.
According to the agency, nuclear generation is forecast to rise globally by 1.6% in 2024, and by 3.5% in 2025.
