Reviving Bulgaria’s Belene Project Could Be Economically Viable, Says Academy Report

17 Nov (NucNet): Reviving Bulgaria’s stalled two-unit Belene project could be economically viable given that its overall investment cost would be under €10.5bn ($12.4bn), the price of capital under 4.5% and the ratio of private to public participation higher than 70% to 30%, a report by the state-funded Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BAS) said. The report was commissioned in December 2016 by Bulgaria’s energy ministry as analysis of the need for new nuclear capacity in Bulgaria. BAS said it had examined a number of scenarios related to future macroeconomic development and electricity market forecasts until 2040 in the Balkan region to assess the potential for generation capacity shortfalls and electricity exports. The report found that under most scenarios the region – not including Bulgaria – would need at least 1,500 MW of new generation capacity after 2030, while Bulgaria on its own could need new dispatchable generation of up to 1,650 MW and baseload capacity of between 420 MW and 1,670 MW. BAS said the reason for the foreseen shortage is the expected retirement of Bulgaria’s coal-fired power stations after 2030-2035. The report keeps open the possibility of a 2,000-MW nuclear power station in the domestic and regional energy system after 2035. BAS, however, said that long-term market forecasts carry substantial risks and Bulgaria should share these risks by attracting a strategic investor for the project. BAS said the participation of the Bulgarian state improves the project’s viability. In 2008, Bulgaria ordered the design, construction and commissioning of two Russian VVER-1000 pressurised water reactor units for Belene. The project was cancelled in 2012 because of concerns over its economic viability and financing.