Nuclear power could expand rapidly if China meets its Paris Agreement goals on carbon neutrality, almost quintupling between 2020 and 2060 and potentially becoming the largest commercial reactor fleet in the world after 2030.

Nuclear energy’s share of primary demand could reach around 15% in 2060 compared with 3% today. Output could also increase substantially with the share of nuclear in the generation mix jumping from 5% in 2020 to 10% in 2060 – equal to adding four 1 GW reactors every year on average. Construction is focused on coastal regions with China’s fleet of nuclear reactors surpassing the 93 plants in the US to become the largest in the world after 2030.

The projections, in an International Energy Agency report on the energy sector’s roadmap to carbon neutrality in China, are based on an “announced pledges scenario (APS), which reflects targets that China declared in 2020 in which emissions of CO2 reach a peak before 2030 and net zero by 2060.