As interest in sector grows, agency revises projections upwards for fifth year in a row
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has revised upwards its projections for the expansion of nuclear power for the fifth year in a row, estimating that global nuclear operational capacity will more than double by 2050.
The Vienna-based UN agency said nuclear capacity could reach 2.6 times the 2024 level by 2050 with small modular reactors (SMRs) expected to play a pivotal role in this expansion.
The estimate comes as global momentum continues to build behind the “clean and secure” source of energy, a statement said.
IAEA director-general Rafael Mariano Grossi announced the new projections, contained in the annual report Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, at the 69th IAEA general conference in Vienna.
At the end of 2024, 417 commercial nuclear power reactors were operational, with a global capacity of 377 GW. In the IAEA’s high case projection, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase to 992 GW by 2050. In the low case projection, capacity rises 50% to 561 GW, compared with 2024.
SMRs are projected to account for 24% of the new capacity added in the high case and for 5% in the low case.
In 2021, the IAEA revised up its annual projections for the first time since Japan’s Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power station accident in Japan in 2011. Since then, the projection for the high case has increased by 25%, from 792 GW in 2021
“The IAEA’s steadily rising annual projections underscore a growing global consensus: nuclear power is indispensable for achieving clean, reliable and sustainable energy for all,” Grossi said.
The high case projection included all operating reactors, possible licence renewals, planned shutdowns, power uprates and plausible and ongoing construction projects foreseen for the next few decades.
The assumptions of the low case projections are that current market, technology and resource trends continue and that there are few changes in laws, policies and regulations affecting nuclear power.
In the high case, national intentions for expanding the use of nuclear power were also considered. The report says that the high case projection remains both plausible and technically feasible and notes the possibility for capacity to exceed this estimate.
It notes, however, that “enabling factors” such as national policies, supporting investment and workforce development, would be needed to help reach – or exceed – the high case.
“While SMRs continue to attract a lot of interest from both embarking and expanding nuclear power countries, harmonised regulatory and industrial approaches will also be necessary for their successful and timely deployment,” the IAEA said.
