Deployment of AI for nuclear industry ‘plagued by lack of data’, IEA also says in new report
The contribution of nuclear power to the data centre electricity supply is likely to increase between 2030 and 2035, particularly in the US and China, driven mainly by the commissioning of small modular reactor (SMRs), the International Energy said in a report on energy and AI.
The report projects that electricity demand from data centres worldwide is set to more than double by 2030 to around 945 TWh, slightly more than the entire electricity consumption of Japan today.
AI will be the most significant driver of this increase, with electricity demand from AI-optimised data centres projected to more than quadruple by 2030.
In various scenarios outlined in the report, the share of nuclear in the electricity needed to power this boom ranges between 16% and 18%, up from around 15% today.
In the US, however, the expansion of SMRs could reduce the need for additional natural gas-fired generation so that by 2035, low-emissions sources including nuclear account for over 55% of the US data centre electricity supply mix. Nuclear’s share of data centre supply today is about 15% today.
In China, as data centres are located mostly in the east of the country, their electricity supply is dominated by coal with a share of about 70%, followed by renewables with nearly 20%, nuclear close to 10% and natural gas accounting for the remainder.
Between 2024 and 2030 both coal and renewables – mostly solar PV and wind – add about 90 TWh to the data centre electricity supply.
However, after 2030, the introduction of SMRs significantly boosts the nuclear share of the data centre electricity mix. Between 2030 and 2035, the rise in renewables and nuclear pushes coal into decline. By 2035, nuclear and renewables together could make up 60% of China’s data centre electricity supply.
In Europe, renewables and nuclear are set to supply most of the additional electricity required, with their combined share rising to 85% by 2030.
Japan and South Korea together account for about 5% of global data centre electricity demand today, a share they are expected to retain to 2030. Renewables and nuclear are set to provide nearly 60% of the electricity consumed by data centres in 2030, up from 35% today.
The rest of the world is responsible for about 10% of total data centre electricity generation, with Southeast Asia and India accounting for a significant portion of that. In both regions, coal remains a key pillar of the data centre electricity supply, but renewables are projected to eclipse it by 2035.
The report warned that in a less favourable environment for AI and data centre operators in which investments do not materialise, and nuclear electricity is sourced entirely from large-scale reactors connected to the grid, the nuclear share could fall to about 10% of the data centre electricity supply mix by 2035.
AI And Nuclear: No Silver Bullet
On the potential uses of AI in the nuclear sector, the IEA said that deployment is “plagued by a lack of data”.
In fusion, data is limited because large-scale facilities conduct relatively few trials, and each operates under unique conditions.
In fission, while extensive operational data exist, access is limited by security and commercial concerns.
The IEA said the clearest AI opportunities for the nuclear sector are those that emerge from more general research, such as material design, or that can be developed in-house by existing players, such as machine learning for system control.
Despite data challenges, AI has already been widely adopted by the nuclear industry. However, the recent wave of AI growth is not likely to further accelerate nuclear fusion deployment, or to bring SMR deployment to before 2030, because – as in many sectors – there are major non-technical bottlenecks.
These are, in particular, regulatory approval bottlenecks, long build times and challenges related to building out new industrial supply chains.
AI holds promise for nuclear, the report said, but its impact is constrained by the broader regulatory, economic and geopolitical factors that define the nuclear industry.
“Over time, AI may also help overcome these barriers, but at present, it appears unlikely to offer a silver bullet either for new fission reactor designs or fusion reactors.”
Overview: Energy Demand From AI Data Centres To Quadruple By 2030
The global rush to AI technology will require almost as much energy by the end of this decade as Japan uses today, but only about half of the demand is likely to be met from renewable sources.
Processing data, mainly for AI, will consume more electricity in the US alone by 2030 than manufacturing steel, cement, chemicals and all other energy-intensive goods combined, according to the report.
Global electricity demand from datacentres will more than double by 2030, according to the report. AI will be the main driver of that increase, with demand from dedicated AI datacentres alone forecast to more than quadruple.
One datacentre today consumes as much electricity as 100,000 households, but some of those currently under construction will require 20 times more.
