26 Jul (NucNet): The deployment of advanced reactors and fuel cycle technologies could conceivably make the total identified uranium resource base sufficient for “thousands of years”, according to a new report by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
‘Uranium 2011: Resources, Production and Demand’, commonly referred to as the ‘Red Book’, says uranium resources and production are on the rise with the security of uranium supply ensured for more than 100 years based on existing requirements.
The report shows that total identified uranium resources have grown 12.5 percent since 2008.
However, the report also says costs of production have increased, leading to reductions in lower cost category resources.
Global uranium mine production increased by over 25 percent between 2008 and 2010 because of significantly increased production in Kazakhstan, currently the world’s leading producer.
The increased resource base has been achieved thanks to a 22 percent increase in uranium exploration and mine development expenditure between 2008 and 2010. In 2010 this expenditure totalled over 2 billion US dollars (1.6 billion euro), the report says.
Demand for uranium is expected to continue to rise for the foreseeable future, the report says. Although the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear accident has affected nuclear power projects and policies in some countries, nuclear power remains “a key part of the global energy mix”.
Several governments have plans for new nuclear power plant construction, with the strongest expansion expected in China, India, South Korea and Russia. The speed and magnitude of growth in generating capacity elsewhere is still to be determined, the report says.
By 2035, according to the joint NEA-IAEA secretariat, world nuclear electricity generating capacity is projected to grow from 375 gigawatts (GW) net at the end of 2010 to between 540 GW net in the low demand case and 746 GW net in the high demand case, increases of 44 percent and 99 percent respectively.
Accordingly, world annual reactor-related uranium requirements are projected to rise from 63,875 tonnes of uranium metal (tU) at the end of 2010 to between 98,000 tU and 136,000 tU by 2035. The currently defined uranium resource base is more than adequate to meet high-case requirements until 2035 and “well into the foreseeable future”.
Although ample resources are available, meeting projected demand will require “timely investments” in uranium production facilities. This is because of the long lead times – typically in the order of 10 years or more in most producing countries – required to develop production facilities that can turn resources into refined uranium ready for nuclear fuel production.
The ‘Red Book’ is published every two years and can be ordered from the OECD’s online bookshop:
www.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/display.asp?lang=EN&sf1=identifiers&st1=978-92-64-17803-8
