The energy sector’s needs for critical minerals could increase by as much as six times by 2040, although nuclear power is one of the low-carbon technologies with the lowest mineral intensity, a report by the International Energy Agency says.

The report says the potential increase is “massive” in absolute terms, but as the costs of technologies fall, mineral inputs will account for an increasingly important part of the value of key components, making their overall costs more vulnerable to potential mineral price swings.

In the agency’s sustainable development (SDS) scenario, which is consistent with meeting Paris agreement goals, average annual mineral demand from nuclear power between 2031 and 2040 grows by around 60% compared to 2020 levels, reaching 82,000 tonnes. It is dominated by chromium (42%), copper (28%) and nickel (25%). Yttrium demand in 2040 is around 7.7 tonnes, or around 0.0015% of current global reserves.