Belgium’s nuclear phaseout could lead to an increased reliance on gas-fired plants or a marked increase in the amount of imported electricity from neighbouring countries that might not be able to spare it, according to a study by researchers at the University of Antwerp.

The study concludes that after closing down all its seven commercial power reactors, Belgium would remain heavily dependent on energy imports.

About one-third of the electricity needed on an annual basis – about 31% compared to more than 22% today – will have to be imported, the study says. “This creates heavy dependence on neighbouring countries and it is questionable whether they will actually have such surpluses,” the researchers concluded.

This, in turn, could increase the risk of blackouts, said Kevin Milis, one of the study’s authors.