Efforts ‘must begin immediately’ to ensure adequate uranium supplies are available
Sufficient uranium resources exist to support the continued use of nuclear power and its significant growth through 2050 and beyond, but the world needs to make substantial investments in new exploration, mining operations and processing techniques to meet surging demand, according to the latest Red Book report released on 8 April.
Currently identified uranium resources will be used up by the 2080s under a “high-growth” scenario that assumes nuclear capacity rises in the years to 2050 and then stays elevated, the Nuclear Energy Agency and International Atomic Energy Agency said in the joint report.
While sufficient uranium resources exist to support this growth “investments in new exploration, mining operations and processing techniques will be essential” to meet the demand, the report said.
“Efforts must begin immediately to ensure adequate uranium supplies are available in the medium term,” it added.
The Red Book indicates that global identified recoverable uranium resources amounted to 7,934,500 tonnes as of 1 January 2023.
This represents all “reasonably assured and inferred” uranium resources that could be recovered at market prices ranging from $40 to $260 per kilogramme of elemental uranium (KgU), equivalent to $15 to $100/lb triuranium octoxide (U3O8). U3O8, also known as yellowcake, is a type of uranium concentrate powder used to produce fuel for nuclear power reactors
Compared to the total reported in the 2022 edition, this represents an increase of less than 0.5%.
Post-Covid Expenditure On The Rise
According to the Red Book, worldwide domestic exploration and mine development expenditure has increased dramatically after a period of decline due to poor market conditions and the Covid-19 pandemic.
Annual expenditure reached $800m in 2022. Preliminary data for 2023 suggests a further increase to $840m. Production, meanwhile, increased 4% between 2020 and 2022 and the report suggests the increase will continue in coming years.
The Red Book Warned, however, that the establishment of new production centres could face significant lead times due to today’s “risk-averse investment climate” and complex and lengthy regulatory processes in many uranium mining jurisdictions.
“Geopolitical challenges and technical difficulties in developing new mines and milling facilities may further compound the situation,” the Red Book said. “As a result, efforts must begin immediately to ensure adequate uranium supplies are available in the medium term.”
Globally, Australia continues to dominate the world’s uranium resources with a share estimated at between 24% and 28%, followed by Kazakhstan with 14% and Canada with 10%.
Sixty eight percent of Australia’s uranium resources, and 17% of global identified resources, are attributed to a single site, the Olympic Dam deposit in South Australia, where uranium is mined as a co-product of copper
Kazakhstan remained by far the world’s largest producer, at 43% of global production. Kazakhstan’s production alone in 2022 amounted to more than the combined production from Canada, Namibia, Australia and Uzbekistan, respectively the second, third, fourth and fifth largest producers of uranium that year.
Governments And Corporations Turning To Nuclear
Just six countries accounted for 90% of the world’s uranium production in 2022, and nine countries accounted for 99%, with Russia, Niger, China, and India the sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth largest producers.
Potential resources increased in China, Namibia, Niger, Turkey and the US, primarily resulting from exploration activities.
Governments and big corporations alike are increasingly looking to nuclear as a low-carbon and reliable source of baseload power.
At the Cop28 climate conference in Dubai in 2023, 25 countries signed a pledge to triple nuclear generation capacity by 2050.
Companies such as Microsoft and Amazon are also increasing their investments in nuclear power, as they bet on the technology to support the build out of new powerful data centres designed to run artificial intelligence systems.
The International Energy Agency said in January that nuclear energy had entered “a new era”, with interest at its highest level since the oil crises in the 1970s. Annual investment in nuclear increased by almost 50% over the three years from 2020, it said.
The Red Book said this potential soaring demand must be accompanied by investments in mining the metal used in nuclear fuel. Nuclear capacity will jump by 130% by 2050 compared to 2022 levels under the high-growth scenario in the report.
Sixty eight percent of Australia’s uranium resources are attributed to a single site, the Olympic Dam deposit. Courtesy BHP.
