2 Oct (NucNet): Nuclear energy has the highest assumed capital costs of key power generation technologies that could be used in Southeast Asia, but it has the best potential capacity factor and the longest plant economic lifetime, a report says.
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) ‘Southeast Asia Energy Outlook’ also says nuclear power does not currently feature in the energy mix of any Southeast Asian country and that by 2035 might account for two percent of electricity generation in the 10 member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).*
It says the assumed capital cost of key power generation technologies that might be used in the region ranges from 700 US dollars (USD) per kilowatt for gas CCGT (combined cycle gas turbine) to USD 4,500 per kW for nuclear. Wind is USD 1,600 per kW and geothermal USD 4,000 per kW.
However, the report says nuclear’s capacity factor is 80 percent compared to 60 percent for gas CCGT, 22 percent for wind and 75 percent for geothermal.
The assumed capital cost of coal is USD 1,500 per kW and its capacity factor is 80 percent.
Capital costs include interest during construction and costs such as legal expenses and engineering, procurement and construction, but not fuel costs.
The assumed economic lifetimes of plants – the period over which the initial investment is recovered – are assumed to be 30 years for coal, 25 years for CCGTs, 35 years for nuclear, 20 years for wind, and 25 years for geothermal, the report says.
Levelised generation costs, which include the fuel, are around USD 30 to 75 per megawatt-hour for coal, USD 20 to 115 per MWh for gas, USD 90 per MWh for nuclear, USD 100 per MWh for wind and USD 70 per MWh for geothermal.
According to the IEA, fuel costs are “a minor proportion” of total generating costs for nuclear plants.
Several countries are interested in nuclear’s potential to contribute to energy security, and are taking steps to prepare for its introduction. Nuclear power is projected to enter the energy mix after 2020 on the assumption that plants are commissioned in Vietnam and, later, in Thailand.
Many Southeast Asian countries have studied the possibility of introducing nuclear, the report says. Most of these plans were either shelved or have not moved forward since the 2011 accident at the Fukushima-Daiichi plant in Japan. Vietnam has made the most progress, having signed an agreement with Russia to build its first nuclear power plant.
The report concludes that fast-growing energy use in Southeast Asia will lead to a sharp rise in the region’s dependence on oil imports and a reduction in its surplus of natural gas and coal for export. The IEA urged countries in the region to take “serious action” to improve their energy efficiency.
The report projects Southeast Asia’s energy demand to increase by more than 80 percent in the period to 2035, a rise equivalent to current demand in Japan. Currently the region’s per-capita energy use is still very low, in part because 134 million people, or over one-fifth of the population, lack access to electricity.
The report is online:
www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO_Special_Report_2013_Southeast_Asia_Energy_Outlook.pdf
The 10 ASEAN members are: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
