Long-awaited Pinc document outlines state of EU’s nuclear sector
European Union member states will require around €241bn ($277bn) in investments through 2050 to meet nuclear energy plans, the European Commission (EC) said as part of its latest nuclear energy roadmap.
The Commission, which released on Friday (13 June) its long-awaited Nuclear Illustrative Programme (Pinc) document, said the figure includes funding for extending the operating life of existing nuclear reactors and constructing new large-scale units. New-build is estimated to account for €205bn and lifetime extensions for €36bn.
Additional investments will also be needed to support the development of small modular reactors (SMRs), advanced modular reactors, microreactors, and fusion technologies, according to the Pinc.
The Commissions said that under current projections, the EU’s nuclear installed capacity from large-scale reactors is expected to grow modestly from 98 GW in 2025 to 109 GW by 2050.
The report anticipates first commercial SMR units entering service between 2030 and 2035, with wider deployment from 2040 onward to complement large reactors and ensure flexibility in grid services. Pinc does not give new estimates towards the SMR or advanced reactor installed capacity but quotes figures between 17-53 GW which had been released by the European SMR industrial alliance.
According to the EC estimates over 90% of electricity in the EU in 2040 will be produced from decarbonised sources, primarily renewables, but complemented by nuclear energy.
The EC said “crucially” all zero and low carbon energy solutions will be needed to decarbonise the EU's energy system.
The Pinc also stresses the importance of maintaining the EU’s industrial leadership in nuclear technologies, improving regulatory cooperation to speed up licensing, and ensuring the safe management of radioactive waste.
The document identifies financing as a central challenge for delivering nuclear projects and calls for a mix of public and private investment mechanisms to de-risk capital-intensive builds, including power purchase agreements (PPAs), contracts for difference, and regulated asset base models.
The Commission recognises the role of PPAs as a key tool for project developers, noting that these can be supported by national governments through targeted instruments.
The Commissions also said it plans to work with the European Investment Bank to promote PPAs, including across borders, in a technology-neutral manner.
Nuclear Industry Watching Closely
However, the projected capacity falls short of calls from industry. Brussels-based nuclear industry group Nucleareurope had urged the EU to aim for at least 150 GW of nuclear capacity by mid-century to align with its climate and energy goals and ensure the EU’s industrial competitiveness and energy security.
Nuclear power provides about a quarter of the EU’s electricity from a total of 99 nuclear reactor units in 12 of the bloc’s 27 member states. Nucleareurope data places installed nuclear capacity today at 106 GW.
In an interview for NucNet last month, Emmanuel Brutin, director-general of Nucleareurope, called for “actionable steps to support nuclear investment”. The industry has said it needed concrete proposals from Pinc, including on long-term operation of nuclear power plants and on the nuclear supply chain.
“Nuclear energy has a role to play in building a resilient and cleaner energy system,” said EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen in a statement.
“To truly deliver the clean energy transition, we need all zero- and low-carbon energy solutions,” he said.
Brutin told NucNet the Commission must “walk the talk” on supporting nuclear energy and policy neutrality, citing past exclusion from key funding mechanisms and slow approvals for new projects.
In a statement today, Brutin welcomed the Commission’s recognition of “the multitude of benefits which nuclear brings to Europe,” adding that nuclear energy “helps reduce total system costs alongside renewables, as it supports grid stability and integration.”
“However, the EU now needs to put in place a clear action plan covering policies and financing mechanisms which will help deliver on planned investments,” he said.
Reduced Cost Outlook In New Pinc
The EC published the last Pinc assessment in 2017. At the time it estimated reactor new-build and long-term operation (LTO) would cost in the margins of €395–500bn, meaning the 2025 estimate of €241bn is almost 60% lower.
In 2017, the EC had estimated a higher portion of new-build to replace retiring reactor units by 2050, while today’s Pinc seems to rely to a higher extend on LTO projects. This in turn could explain the gap in the investment forecasts almost 10 years apart.
The Commission is mandated to periodically issue a new Pinc under Article 40 of the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom) Treaty to indicate non-binding targets and programmes for nuclear production and any necessary investment.
The Commissions said the final version of the Pinc will be released following consultation with the European Economic and Social Committee and will be discussed by energy ministers at the Energy Council scheduled for 16 June in Luxembourg.
